Checking in on Predictions for 2015

Well, the year is over, time to check in on how my predictions performed.  I’m happy with 50%, but aim to do better next year (without predicting more obvious things, of course)

Prediction Mid-year Dec 9th Final
Bitcoin in USD will outperform the S&P 500 (Starting values: Bitcoin $314.7, S&P $2084) S&P -0.3%
Bitcoin -17.7%
S&P -0.2%
Bitcoin +34.4%
S&P -1.6%
Bitcoin +34.1%
No government shutdowns None Next week? Made it.
Student loan default rates will be greater by Dec 31 (currently 13.7%, declined 1% in 2014) 13.7% 11.8%(1) 11.8%(1)
Russia will increase its square mileage. (Currently 6,592,800) 6,592,800 6,592,800 6,592,800
Paul Krugman or Thomas Friedman will leave New York Times. Employed Employed Employed
no Hobbit movies, no Sherlock none announced
Jan 1, 2016
Made it. By 1 day.

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